Aiken leads European Tour opener

Golf Betting Lines

01/05/2012 - East London, South Africa (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - South Africa's Thomas Aiken fired a nine-under 64 on Thursday to take the opening-round lead of the Africa Open, the first event on the 2012 European Tour schedule.

Aiken, last year's Open de Espana winner, is one shot clear at the par-73 East London Golf Club.

Two-time U.S. Open champion Retief Goosen, who had the honor of hitting the first tee shot in the 2012 Race to Dubai, and fellow South African Jaco Ahlers are tied for second at eight-under 65.

In fact, players from the home country are doing quite well.

Michael Du Toit and Dean O'Riley, both South Africans, share fourth with Welshman Phillip Price at seven-under 66.

Aiken played in the same group with Goosen on Thursday off No. 9 (due to course logistics, the second wave of players went off nine, instead of 10). Aiken broke into red figures in spectacular fashion. He hit a good two-iron to the par-five 11th green for his second shot and holed the eagle putt.

Aiken birdied 16, 17 and 18 to head to the first tee at five-under par. He went lower thanks again to the two-iron. Aiken got to a par-five third green in two with that trusty club, and once again, made eagle.

"I have had that two-iron for seven years and it is the only club from my old bag that conforms with groove regulations," said Aiken. "I find it very versatile and it is one of my favorite clubs. I had 230 yards to the hole on the third, and a similar yardage on 11. Managed to get the yardage right and I hit two perfect shots."

Aiken parred the fourth after his second eagle of the round, but got to nine- under par thanks to back-to-back birdies at five and six. He parred his last two holes for a somewhat surprising first-round lead.

"I wasn't really expecting that after two weeks without touching a club," admitted Aiken. "It was a great morning this morning -- early start, and the scoring conditions were good. It was out there for the taking and luckily I hit some really good shots and made putts.

"I really enjoyed the round today. This is not the longest course, but it bites if you go askew. Anything off the line on this course is pretty much a reload off the tee, which makes it a thinking man's course. There are a lot of risk-and-reward holes -- a couple of drivable par fours and tricky par threes -- and I think that a lot of new courses lack that challenge."

Maarten Lafeber, Charles-Edouard Russo, Richard Bland, JJ Senekal, Danny Willett and Shaun Norris share seventh place at six-under 67.

NOTES: Defending champion and former British Open winner Louis Oosthuizen is in the mix after a four-under 69 on Thursday...Aiken has won several times on the South African Tour, which is co-sponsoring this championship...Aiken, Goosen and Peter Hedblom, the third member of the group, combined to go 18- under par in round one...Last year's Race to Dubai winner and world No. 1 Luke Donald, is not on hand this week.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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